As per BMI Research, the global refined tin market will remain in deficit over 2017-2021 as production growth remains suppressed due to depleting ore reserves and mounting regulations, while stronger demand is driven by the electronics industry. China will remain the world's largest producer and consumer of refined tin over our forecast period to 2021, with growing domestic deficits over the years.The global tin market will remain in deficit over our forecast period to 2021 as a consequence of a stronger global demand outlook relative to production, which will continue to be hampered by depleting ore reserves and strict regulations. We expect production growth to recover over 2018 on y-o-y terms, posting an average growth of 1.7% compared to a 0.5% contraction in 2017 as Chinese production increases. We nevertheless forecast consumption to exceed production by 2.6 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2018, a deficit which will rise to 7.8kt in 2021. Meanwhile, consumption growth will remain steady at an average of 1.9% during 2018-2021, primarily due to demand from the Chinese electronics sector. The deficit level during 2018-2021 will average 7.1kt, while the stocks-to-use ratio will decrease from 24.2% to 16.4% over this period; this lies in contrast to an average surplus of 13.5kt and a stocks-to-use ratio of 22% during 2012-2016. This growing deficit will support a modest rise in tin prices from USD20,500/tonne in 2018 to USD22,500/tonne by 2021.
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Updated On 25-Mar-2018
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