Electric vehicle (EV) sales will top 5.1 million units by 2027 and account for 5% of global car sales, according to new 10-year forecasts from BMI Research, a Fitch Group Company. The forecast data set provides granular sales and fleet forecasting across 52 countries where electric vehicles are sold for both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV).
“EV is a nascent industry, and it’s no surprise that developed markets with strict fuel economy standards lead market coverage, but these markets don’t always have the highest adoption rates,” said Anna-Marie Baisden, Head of Autos Analysis. “In 10 years, sales of battery powered cars will outpace hybrids by about two to one, and fleet penetration, which is now evenly distributed between both, will also lean towards battery vehicles.”
EVs will account for 5% of global car sales by 2027, of which BEVs will account for 3.4 million in sales outpacing PHEV sales of 1.7 million. The global EV fleet will grow sevenfold over 10 years to 2027 to 26.8 million but account for less than 2% of the global car fleet.
U.S. EV sales are expected to stay below 3% of new sales by 2027. Canada, which has a similar product mix, is forecast at 3.7% due to better incentives. Norway (78%), Iceland (45%) and Sweden (27%) are the top three markets globally for EV penetration of new sales by 2027. All three fit a profile of affluent smaller Developed European markets with supportive incentives where it is easier to renew the fleet. However, shifting policies have historically impacted sales. Netherlands reported negative numbers for PHEVs in 2017 as consumers returned them when a change of policy meant they were no longer viable.
“Electric vehicle adoption in emerging markets will be challenging absent incentives and centralized support for the industry,” added Baisden.